This is a short tutorial on how to find National Bureau of Economic Research working papers online and in the Libraries' catalog.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w18575.pdf NBER Working Paper No. 18575 Issued in November 2012 NBER Program(s): AG Abstract: We conduct and analyze two large surveys of hypothetical annuitization choices. We find that allowing individuals to annuitize a fraction of their wealth increases annuitization relative to a situation where annuitization is an "all or nothing" decision. Very few respondents choose declining real payout streams over flat or increasing real payout streams of equivalent expected present value. Highlighting the effects of inflation increases demand for cost of living adjustments. Frames that focus on flexibility, control, and investment risk significantly reduce annuitization. A majority of respondents prefer to receive an extra "bonus" payment during one month of the year that is funded by slightly lower payments in the remaining months. Concerns about later-life income, spending flexibility, and counterparty risk are the most important self-reported motives that influence the annuitization decision, whereas the desire to leave a bequest has little influence on this decision. Stephen P. Zeldes is the Benjamin M. Rosen Professor of Economics and Finance at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business. In his research, Professor Zeldes has examined a wide range of applied issues in macroeconomics and finance, including household saving behavior, social security reform, pension policy, retirement account portfolio choices, annuitization and retirement security, the effects of government budget deficits, and the relationship between consumer spending and the stock market. In his current research, Zeldes is studying choices made by defined-benefit pension recipients between life annuities and lump-sum payouts, designing new financial products to provide longevity protection, analyzing the implications of wage risk for pensions and Social Security, and estimating cost savings from corporate pension freezes. His research has been published in the leading academic journals.
References Baum, F. L. Denslow, W. W.(1979, November). The Wizard of Oz., Washington, DC: Ballantine Books. Littlefield, H. M. (1964). The Wizard of Oz: Parable on Populism. The Johns Hopkins University Press, Vol. 16(No. 1), pp. 47-58, Retrieved from http:// www.jstor.org/stable/2710826 Rockoff, H. (2000, April). How Long Did it Take the United States to Become an Optimal Currency Area? NBER Working Paper Series on Historical Factors in Long Run Growth. Retrieved from http://WNN.nber.org/papers/h0124.pdf
According the National Bureau of Economic Research, the US economy recovered from the recession at the beginning of the summer of 2009. Yet the recovery has been disappointing when compared to other recoveries. In this episode of the Numbers Game, John Taylor of Stanford University talks with host Russ Roberts about the nature of the recovery. How does it compare historically to other recoveries? How can we measure the pace of the recovery? The conversation ends with a discussion of possible explanations for why the recovery has been disappointing. 1) What is potential GDP? (0:52) 2) The economy never catches back up to trend (2:38) 3) The 1981 recession (3:16) 4) Is there a correct or potential level of GDP? (4:45) 5) A look at past recoveries (6:13) 6) Friedman and the Plucking Model (8:10) 7) A look at real growth rates in recoveries (8:59) 8) Employment and the recovery (10:20) LINKS TO DATA & PAPERS REFERENCED - 1. 2008-09 and 1981-1982 Recession & Recovery Charts: Real GDP (GDPC1) downloaded from FRED 7/13/12, taken from BEA.gov - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPC1/ Potential GDP (GDPPOT) downloaded from FRED 7/13/12, taken from CBO.gov - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPPOT/ 2. 1907-08 and 1893-94 Recession & Recovery Charts: GDP data from NBER, compiled by Nathan Balke and Robert Gordon with adjustments by John Taylor for comparability with earlier charts -http://www.nber.org/data/abc/ Potential GDP calculations by John Taylor using a Hodrick-Prescott trend. 3. The Plucking Model Working Paper: The "Plucking Model" of Business Fluctuations Revisited by Milton Friedman Working Papers in Economics, E-88-48 -- Hoover Institution, Stanford University http://hoohila.stanford.edu/workingpapers/getWorkingPaper.php?filename=E-88-48.pdf 4. Growth Rate of Real GDP Chart: Growth Rate calculated from Real GDP (GDPC1) downloaded from FRED 7/13/12, taken from BEA.gov - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPC1/ 5. Change in the Percentage of the Population that is Working Chart: Employment-Population Ratio (EMRATIO) downloaded from FRED 7/13/12, taken from BLS.gov - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO/ Click the following link to view "The Economic Recovery (Part 2)" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooUbohNneCQ
In this fun skit we take the bandit's treasure home but some weird things start happening. The next morning, we wake up to someone breaking into our house, stealing our treasure, and leaving behind a transporter. Should we go after them? If you haven't seen part one yet, click the video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njRjztZUNt4 We are That YouTub3 Family! "That YouTub3 Family" is a super fun and entertaining family vlog channel. Our daily videos highlight the fun we have as a family. We are a fun family of 6 who love to share our family friendly vlogs, family game nights, childhood games, fun Friday activities, Sardines, Tag, Hide and Seek and more with you! Come with us on this adventure and be a part of That YouTube Family! Our children have their own YouTube channels as well: Audrey (18) - AllAroundAudrey http://bit.ly/1Mpc0na Jordan (15) - JustJordan33 http://bit.ly/1TDEzO9 Jake (12) - Jake and Ty http://bit.ly/2jU7PIu Ty (8) - Jake and Ty http://bit.ly/2jU7PIu For Business Inquiries Please Email: YT3Fam@gmail.com Our Mailing Address: P.O. Box 6792 N. Logan, Utah 84341 Fun videos we think you might enjoy! Daily Family Vlogs: http://bit.ly/2AZJqIT Family Game Night: http://bit.ly/2Cm2Zv1 Sardines: http://bit.ly/2o3Kad9 Challenges: http://bit.ly/2j7avBP Family Fun: http://bit.ly/2C7ioOT Hello Neighbor In Real Life: http://bit.ly/2jUMvCt Playground Wars: http://bit.ly/2zdfFov Family Nerf Games: http://bit.ly/2zdfKZl Tag Games: http://bit.ly/2Aqq9yW Computer Games: http://bit.ly/2C7cDRm Fort Wars: http://bit.ly/2Anp0IG Pranks: http://bit.ly/2CjRy7j Music: Nightmare on my street by Jay Man www.ourmusicbox.com Past Reflections by Jay Man www.ourmusicbox.com Weird Electro by Jay Man www.ourmusicbox.com "Gold Rush" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ "Hitman" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ "Mistake the Getaway" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Thanks For Watching! -That YouTub3 Family
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This podcast episode was originally posted on August 15, 2014. The original show notes follow. In this episode, James Caton discusses the classical and inter-war gold standards. James is an economics PhD student at George Mason University. Gold has many qualities that make it an ideal money: It is valuable, scarce, divisible, and easy to transport. It is also easy to verify the value of a given amount of gold: The Old Testament references weights and scales being used to measure gold. Ancient people could verify the purity of the gold by observing its water displacement. Before 1870, only Great Britain was on a gold standard, while gold, silver, and other metals would circulate freely alongside one another throughout the rest of Europe. The classical gold standard began in the wake of the Franco-Prussian War, when the victorious Germany demonetized silver in favour of gold and the rest of Western Europe followed suit (see Caton on the deflation that resulted from the demonetization of silver, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2330059). America converted to the gold standard in 1879 upon redeeming the Civil War greenbacks for gold. The classical gold standard operated as a fixed exchange rate regime. As England was the center of global finance, the Bank of England held a privileged position whereby other central banks would follow the Bank of England to keep their currencies constant against the Pound Sterling (see Eichengreen and Bordo, http://www.nber.org/papers/w8716). This was the case until the First World War. Europe’s governments suspended the convertibility of their currencies into gold during the First World War. These governments created a great deal of inflation to finance the war, but they were reluctant to devalue their exchange rates after the war had ended. They wanted to return to their pre-war exchange rates. At this point, the Fed did something crazy: It slashed the US money stock by over 40%, increasing demand for gold, and causing a general deflation. Before 1925, as gold flowed into the United States, the Fed did not increase the monetary base in tandem with the increasing gold stock, thus sterilizing the gold inflows’ influence on prices. After 1925, when Europe returned to the gold standard, the Federal Reserve did increase the monetary base alongside the gold stock. The typical Austrian narrative about the Great Depression (see Robbins, https://mises.org/books/depression-robbins.pdf, and Rothbard, http://mises.org/rothbard/agd.pdf) blames the Fed for the 1920s inflation that created an unsustainable boom resulting in the eventual crash that became the Great Depression. However, James disagrees with the blame put on the Fed in this story, as the ratio between the base money stock and the gold stock was fairly constant from 1925 to 1929. From 1925, the Bank of England was acting as Europe’s central bank, holding most of Europe’s gold. This was politically unpalatable for the French, who began hoarding gold in 1927, devaluing the Franc and causing gold to flow into France (see Irwin, http://www.nber.org/papers/w16350). Between 1927 and 1932, France went from holding 7% to 27% of the world’s monetary gold. The resulting deflation exacerbated the Great Depression. The Bank of England went off gold in 1931, sounding the death knell for the international gold standard. FDR devalued the dollar and outlawed private ownership of gold in 1933, ending what was left of the gold standard. Although this mitigated the ongoing institutional collapse in the American banking sector, the Great Depression continued on until after the Second World War. See also: Irwin (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4916) and Rustici (http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2010/01/rustici_on_smoo.html) on the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. James can be found online at his blog, Money, Markets, and Misperceptions (http://moneymarketsandmisperceptions.blogspot.ca/), and at the George Mason University website (http://economics.gmu.edu/people/jcaton). Download this episode (http://traffic.libsyn.com/economicsdetective/Gold_and_the_Great_Depression.mp3). Subscribe to Economics Detective Radio on iTunes (https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/economics-detective-radio/id914356499?mt=2&uo=4&at=11lSv3), Android (http://subscribeonandroid.com/economicsdetective.libsyn.com/rss), or Stitcher (http://www.stitcher.com/s?fid=53265&refid=stpr).
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By historical standards, the current recovery from the recession that began in 2007 has been disappointing. As John Taylor of Stanford University's Hoover Institution and the Department of Economics argues in Part 1 of this discussion on the economy, GDP has not returned to trend, the percent of the population that is working is flat rather than rising, and growth rates are below their usual levels after such a deep slump. In this episode, Taylor and Number's Game host Russ Roberts discuss possible explanations for the sluggish recovery: the ongoing slump in construction employment, the effect of housing prices on saving and spending decisions by households, and this recovery's having been preceded by a financial crisis. Taylor rejects these arguments, arguing instead that the sluggish recovery can be explained by poor economic policy decisions made by the Bush and the Obama administrations. 1) On the argument that there are structural problems in the labor market (0:25) 2) Comparisons to the 1981 recession (2:16) 3) Is this recession special because it followed a financial crisis? (2:46) 4) What can the Great Depression tell us? (3:55) 5) Why is the current recovery so mediocre? (5:32) LINKS TO DATA & PAPERS REFERENCED - 1. Construction Sector Employment Chart: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Series CES2000000001, Seasonally Adjusted 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Chart: S&P Dow Jones Indices and Fiserv 9-25-12 - http://www.standardandpoors.com 3. Personal Saving as a % of Disposable Income Chart: BEA NIPA Table 2.1 line 36 4. 2008-09 and 1981-1982 Recession & Recovery Charts: Real GDP (GDPC1) downloaded from FRED 7/13/12, taken from BEA.gov - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPC1/ Potential GDP (GDPPOT) downloaded from FRED 7/13/12, taken from CBO.gov - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPPOT/ 5. 'Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, and Financial Crises: Evidence from the American Record' by Michael D. Bordo and Joseph G. Haubrich - http://media.hoover.org/sites/default/files/documents/Bordo-Haubrich-Steep-Paper-SNB%209_7.pdf 6. 1893-94 and 1907-08 Recession & Recovery Charts: GDP data from NBER, compiled by Nathan Balke and Robert Gordon with adjustments by John Taylor for comparability with earlier charts - http://www.nber.org/data/abc/. Potential GDP calculations by John Taylor using a Hodrick-Prescott trend. 7. 1933-36 Great Depression & Recovery Chart: GDP data from NBER, compiled originally by Nathan Balke and Robert Gordon - http://www.nber.org/data/abc/. 8. 1929-1940 Unemployment Rate (% of Labor Force) Chart: Historical Statistics of the United States (Millennial Edition) - Table Ba470-477: Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment, 1890-1990 - http://hsus.cambridge.org/HSUSWeb/toc/showTable.do?id=Ba340-651 9. 'An Empirical Analysis of the Revival of Fiscal Activism in the 2000s' by John B. Taylor - http://www.stanford.edu/~johntayl/JEL_Taylor_Final%20Pages.pdf Click the following link to view "The Economic Recovery (Part 1)" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eCYq2vD5GY